Regardless of where you stand politically, I think we can all agree that the 2008 election turned “conventional thinking” on its head in way that very few events in recent history have been able to. As a business student and a huge fan of socio-political trend watching, I also find that there are really interesting lessons we as MBAs can take away from the election, no matter what discipline we’ve chosen.

1 – The Next Generation Has Arrived

3.5 Million new voters were registered this election spanning not only age but also ethnicities.  In fact, according to national exit polls, 68% of voters that chose Barack Obama and 31% that chose John McCain were voting for the first time. To boot, turnout was as much as 89% in some states.

What this means for MBAs is that this election has marked the arrival of The Next American Generation culturally and demographically. Because of the strong impact this generation has shown in the election, what were once talking points for experts in finance, marketing, strategy and human capital will now become more like facts.

The lesson here is that the impact of this generation is no longer abstract for many of us, it’s reality.

2 – Stay On Message, Stay Authentic

If you had to pick a single word that described each candidate’s message, chances are that it would be “Change” for Obama and “Maverick” for McCain. Wait a minute, wasn’t it also “Change” for McCain as well? What about “Country First?”

The fact of the matter is that this election also proved a seminal rule about how consumers view authenticity and marketing. Because of the shifts that kept on being made in his message strategy, McCain lost a brilliant opportunity to capitalize on his own authenticity.

With the rise of new media and the Internet, consumers are becoming hyper-aware of who’s trying to get their attention and are becoming less forgiving to those they believe are just pandering to whatever they think they want to hear. The lesson here is to pick a message, whether in your marketing, strategy or in your mission statement that hits at the very core of your authenticity and then stick with it!

3 – The Black Swan Is Real

Even before you begin business school, you start to deal in probabilities.  In fact much of modern learning is built on confidence intervals, majority populations/outcomes and marginal risk.  What happens if an event lands in the long tail however, where the improbable becomes reality like it did in the recent financial meltdown?

Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls this a black swan and it hit this election like a Mack Truck.  The point of a black swan is though it has a very very small probability of occurring, it’s impact all but wipes out the effects of all the “normal” and “predictable” outcomes.

The lesson here is that risk and innovation go together hand-in-hand and just because a scenario has a very small probability of happening, it’s effects should at least be considered in forward-thinking.

This election has been an incredible ride; one that has kept us glued to CNN for way more hours than some of us would like to admit.  Now that its over, we have to ask ourselves “what’s next?” After all, we are all in this together and regardless of who you voted for, we all have to get jobs come May.

Technorati Tags: Black Swan, Election 2008, Financial Meltdown, MBA, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Owen Graduate School of Management, OwenBloggers, socio-political, Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt Owen Graduate School of Management, voter turnout

Technorati Tags: Black Swan, Election 2008, Financial Meltdown, MBA, Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Owen Graduate School of Management, OwenBloggers, socio-political, Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt Owen Graduate School of Management, voter turnout

My friend Steph called me this morning to alert me to the fact that a recent post I did on my business school blog at OwenBloggers.com was quoted in a recent web-article on the word “w00t;”

“But w00t has done just the opposite: it started on the keyboard, made its way into SMS texting, then into writing, until it was finally spoken out loud….”This momentous selection is just another sign that the American lexicon is increasingly defined not by scholars but by raving lunatic bloggers like us,” writes Jared, a blogger on Owenbloggers.com”

Now normally, I don’t consider a ton of what I write to appeal to mass audiences. In fact, the very nature of writing about business and marketing makes me, by default, a niche blogger. That’s exactly why when someone tells me that a popular newsmagazine thinks I am on-point enough to cite, I begin to realize that blogging is a much more powerful tool than most people think.

Think about it, where else would you be able to add “have been quoted in Newsweek” to your list of accomplishments in an interview?

Technorati Tags: blogging, w00t

Though I am certainly not a wireless industry expert; based on my experiences as a marketing blogger, a self-confessed Mac-head and most importantly a 20-something, I believe that these predictions are fairly solid.

The Launch

The iPhone launch will be as big as expected. Look for Apple to hit or exceed its 10 Million handset goal before the close of 2008. Why? The fact is that the phone is a great piece of technology and probably more importantly, a great fashion accessory. Basic consumers will go insane over the iPhone, giving Apple a foothold with consumers that are willing to pay more for a cooler version of their iPod but who may have been reticent to purchase an actual Mac computer.

The only potential killjoy for the iPhone may be with its integration with PC’s. Look for reports of sporadic but annoying syncing issues forcing some consumers to give up on the phone, and some to break down and buy a Mac. This could be a fantastic thing in the long-term, but it is the one thing that may be a momentum killer for Apple in the first year.

Long-Term

The one segment that Apple many not be able to win over with the iPhone, may just be with their most loyal and active users. These guys don’t play around with technology. Their current smartphones are used for e-mail more than voice calls, most likely, and I just can’t see a blackberry user (for instance) becoming really comfortable with a virtual keyboard.

Keep in mind; the Apple brand was built off of a core following of users that respect the technology for its ability to speed process and help them work better. Graphic Designers, IT Professionals, Internet Gurus – all of these people want a device that is first and foremost a workhorse. Honestly, I see the iPhone as more of a consumer-oriented product than appealing to these guys. Unless Apple steps up with more features or accessories that appeals to this group – it could be in for a bumpy ride.

Once the smoke clears and consumers get their fill, its going to be this core group that makes or breaks the long-term viability for the iPhone.

Will I Buy One?

In the words of my friend who works retail for Apple, “not this version.” In the second iteration, depending on how many bugs Apple has to fight in its first 6-9 months, possibly.

I consider myself to be loosely affiliated with the a-fore mentioned core Apple user group and for that reason, I am not feeling the love quite yet. In 6-9 months though, my Treo contract expires and that is an awful lot of time for another smartphone to emerge that panders to my needs. Till then, it’s a horserace but I will say this; as go the geeks, so goes the business world for they are the tech support.

One thing is for certain, not since the Furby was invented will we have seen the consumer insanity that this product will inspire. All I have to say is let the iPhone games begin!

Despite Chairman Howard Schultz’s promises to keep it “about the coffee”, this move seems to confirm what most of us already know for some time now; Starbucks is trying to leverage its massive 9,400 store network into a media distribution network.

With McCartney on board, look for artists of all shapes and colors to undoubtedly sign on to this new venture, doing to decent music what Starbucks has previously done to decent coffee.

You’ll recall Starbucks’ success with that Ray Charles album emboldened them to tap into an apparently undersold adult yuppie music lover too lazy to go to a music store or download iTunes.

Now, I don’t fear this because McCartney’s music sub-par. In fact, I fear it for the exact opposite reason.

We’ve seen how a massive distribution network like Wal-Mart can force suppliers to tailor their products, including shaping media like CD’s & DVD’s. I fear that this new move by Starbucks will only further mar the cultural diversity in this country and zap its creative personality until we are all a bunch of mindless, caffeine-addicted, soft pop-listening sycophants!

That being said, watch this particular blog posting come back to bite me in the {explicative deleted} when I am just getting out of business school, attempting to get a job with them.

The White House declared its opposition yesterday to a bill that would give the District its first full seat in the House of Representatives, saying it is unconstitutional, and a key Senate supporter said such concerns could kill the measure. (WASHINGTON POST)

If the president is so adamant about the spread of democracy, why in all hell is he opposing the residents of the District of Columbia (who pay more than their fair share of federal income taxes – bty) having representation in Congress?

Taxation without representation = unconstitutional.

‘Nuf Said.

On this show, contributors have agreed that the single most important development that could benefit marketing technology to 20-somethings is the abolishment of Digital Rights Management (DRM) software. Yesterday, Steve Jobs (CEO of Apple Inc.) openly called for this as the next big step in the evolution of online music sales.

DRM software, in a nutshell, is a protection added onto most music sold online that prevents the user from doing things that would supposedly violate the copyrights of the music producers. The problem with DRM is that is that it also restricts a user to only buy music from those online stores that support that users’ hardware (i.e. Apple iTunes-iPod, Microsoft Zune Store-Zune Player, etc.).

What Jobs is proposing is to eliminate DRM completely, thereby hedging his bets that users of products like the new Microsoft Zune – which can only increase given Apple’s 70% player market share – will generate a net gain by buying their music off of iTunes.

I’d say that this is a good move for Jobs, given the current long-term market conditions he’s facing and his vision for Apple to become a lifestyle company rather than just a computer manufacturer (they even dropped the word Computer from their name).

The one thing I would point out is that this DRM has to be dropped for everything if Apple is to successfully establish sustainable revenue lines beyond its hardware. DRM restrictions have to be dropped on music and TV/movies in order for Apple to win big on this.

My money is on that this is exactly what Jobs is aiming for. He wants to get the music companies to agree to this now and then look for an expanded call for DRM repeals on movies and TV rights just around the time that Wal-Mart goes full force on its online movie sales.

Warning….random personal rant ahead:

Every once in a while, my boss and I hit a patch of conversation where all we do is talk about the lack of depth in the DC dating pool. This most often occurs when I am sick of looking for dates and need to vent and when my boss, well…let’s just say he’s been at this longer than I have so he’s perpetually jaded no matter how full his dance card.

That being said, here’s what we have decided on as the basics of the DC gay dating scene:

1) Gay males in DC come in three different maturity levels; twinkie, oldie, and jaded. (one guess as to which category my boss and I fall under)

2) The first evaluative question in sizing up any date is “what do you do?” It’s the equivalent of the “call” in poker; if you’re bluffing you better be damn good at it to get this right.

3) This city is so small, you know you’ve hit rock bottom when you can ID just about everyone at a random party you get invited to by their match.com/craigslist/myspace/friendster screen names.

Now for the fun part:

With my acceptance into an MBA program, I am put into an interesting situation where I really can’t start a new relationship and I am not adept enough nor do I think I can effectively bring myself to “casual” dating. In fact, I think this is a common theme for 20-somethings as there are many around us who think it’s easy to flip that switch. For us – you know, with souls – no such luck.

Whatever happened to regular guys/gals? I’m talking about those who are not really, really hot; just people that are really, really REAL.

Browsing endless personal ads one thing is apparent; gay guys in DC are either serious posers or someone needs to reconsider our position on the “places for smart singles” list.

Because this announcement has such broad implications for 20-somethings (c’mon, what 20-something doesn’t want a new cell phone every other month?), though I will not be drooling over my keyboard from 12 PM – 2 PM EST, I will be providing some analysis on the next show. Perhaps I’ll even dish out a second post towards the end of the day if the reactions are really that spectacular.

Before the unveiling, I do have one thing to say about putting such a “killer product” on the market; If Henry Ford taught us anything about quality, its that it is produced from those who seek to specialize their trade and dedicated themselves to the quality of that one specialty.

Jobs might be able to pack all the neat tricks he wants to into this new iPhone (or whatever its going to be called) but don’t be surprised if its quality as a phone is on par with or below that of other “smart phones” (e.g. the Treo).

It’s consumerism versus quality, folks. I love my iPod as much as the next yuppie urbanite but there is a line between buying a product for its functionality and buying a product just because everyone else has it.

Apple has built what can only be described as a brand that all other marketers seek to replicate. It’s so strong, that even the hint of a new product creates demand for it. We’ll just have to see if it performs half as well as we want it to.

Normally when I post a show, I will also post it on Qpodder.com, a gay and lesbian podcast listing. Qpodder started as a pretty good idea to bring GLBT as well as GLBT-friendly podcasters together to showcase the huge spectrum of voices that the communities espouse.

However, now it has become a non-stop stream of gay, white men complaining about their lives. In fact, it seems like most of the truly entertaining podcasters that have succeeded in building a brand outside of clubbing, drugs and sex no longer even bother giving the Qpodder main site a second thought.

The only reason I hung on was because it seemed that my site was enough of a curiosity to warrant several brief click-throughs. Now, even though I respect and admire the pioneers who built the site up and the co-podcasters who comprised the original cast of brilliant GLBT voices (Nillo, included), I don’t think I want to actively post there anymore.

For those of you who did come over from Qpodder, I would love your feedback. Should this be the way to go and has Qpodder lost its orginal Madge-ic (pun-intended)?

Check out the Mike Flemming piece on the gay agenda.  It’s bold, well-written and completley on the mark.  Here’s an exerpt:

First, marriage is a straight convention that is failing miserably — even for them. A 40 percent success rate isn’t exactly a sure sign we should assimilate and emulate immediately.

But beyond that— and I gave it a go twice for several years and would again — declaring a connection between two people, both publicly and privately, is much more powerful to me than a piece of paper that says the government approves.

And for those of you who desire society’s validation and/or genuinely need protections like visitation rights, child custody and property entitlement, the law does allow you to legally entangle yourselves. They’re called powers of attorney, joint checking accounts, co-ownership titles and Last Wills. A good tax preparer can help you couplers file to your best financial advantage. 

He goes on to talk about looking at problems from a long-term perspective and makes some great points about strategies the gay communtiy should be talking about.  Kudos to Mike on a fantastic piece and possibly the most rational argument about gay rights I’ve seen in a long time.

He is catching all sorts of flack so if you like it, let him know! (you can find his e-mail at the bottom of the page.

The culprit? You guessed it….Starbucks!

Once content with dominating the $40 Billion dollar coffee industry with their scorched coffee in overpriced, snooty paper cups, Starbucks is now turning its eyes to media with its first movie foray, Akeelah & The Bee.

It starts with Starbucks’ Main & Main placement strategy. They know they’re everywhere. They know they can bring massive advertising strength with their distribution network – what prerequisites are there for good movie making? Ok, ok ok….perhaps the movie is going to be ok but I have a serious beef with this. Once, a decent marketer with OK coffee, they have crossed the line with this ‘Akeelah’ promotion.

I make no pretense that I hate Starbucks. Its really nothing against their company per se, but there’s something depressing about seeing a Starbucks sign go up in a perfectly decent space where a privately-owned coffee shop should have gone. This is another sign that the four horseman of the apocalypse are going to ride into town with Starbucks coffee cups. (I can even imagine one of them saying “Damn it, Virgil! I told you not to get that extra shot of espresso! We are not stopping for a potty break!”)

The point is this, marketing entails responsibility and I echo AdAdge.com in calling this a bad idea. Starbuck’s core competency is marketing, and though I respect their right to get into media, what happens when they start to dominate this market too?

Its genius that they have this distribution network but its like they are using it to take over the world…its not fair, that’s my idea!

She explained that impact, used without a specific qualifier, could have either a positive or negative connotation and I would be better off finding a word that was more precise. I eventually changed the word in the e-book but her comments stuck with me.

Just looking at all the bloggers and so-called pundits out there that have risen from the fertile soil of the Internet, it’s clear that impact comes in many forms. In fact, most of us got into marketing, or blogging, or podcasting because we believe we could have impact through our words, images and strategies. To us, impact of any sort is fascinating. Impact teaches and impact compels. Impact even sometimes creates barriers. Impact implies contact and reaction.

The idea my writer friend was reaching for is that impact is also subjective. If we as marketers, pundits, bloggers or otherwise want to be taken seriously – we have to consider impact in all its forms.

When it comes down to it the lesson is with physics; every action has a reaction. If that reaction is to tune you out, you loose.

Its easy for us put things out there but don’t waste your readers/watchers time. If you are too enamored of your own content to realize its only going to be interesting to you – put it on live journal. I can be guilty of this all too often; mixing my own opinion with what I think of as fact. The key is consistency of purpose.

Before I re-submitted the e-book, I took a moment to reconsider my own words. I realized that the #1 amateur mistake is to be so quick to want to make contact that you forget about the moment before impact.

In marketing and in the creative universe, this moment is too valuable to skip over. Before the paint is dried, the final cut is made or you hit that “SEND” button, you still have control.

The moment before impact, the chance is there to choose the path you want. Take 30 seconds and make sure it’s the path that is impacting your readers, and not just yourself.

Now, I come from a strange perspective here since a lot of my content is about business models, or at least making money off of them through marketing. The problem I have is that as opposed to old media (TV/Radio/Print) that has perfected the ability to insert advertising cleanly and tastefully with their content, online content producers seem to graffiti it all over themselves like some drunk, deranged mud wrestler.

Case in point: the esteemed Madge Weinstein of Podshow.com. Recently, the influential ‘dyke-mother’ of Queercasting signed a deal with GoDaddy.com to sponsor her vidcasts. Madge, best known for her pointed and impassioned political podcasts which launched literally hundreds of new podcasting voices (mine included) has since produced three vidcasts that have been marked ‘Sponsored by GoDaddy.com. Checkout with code PS5 and save 10% at checkout.’ The first podcast was rather good, featuring an introduction by Madge wearing the signature “Godaddy.com Girl Shirt” and a tepidly humorous scripted clip from her ‘early days.’ However, the subsequent content she has produced has fallen short – way short. The last two videos are a6 minute clip of Richard Bluestein (Madge without the makeup) running around someone else’s house and a second, 35 second clip of what I can only identify as a liposuction machine sucking fat out of someone.

All I can say is that this is not content, its an excuse to put an ad out on the web. I am incredibly dismayed that a visionary content-producer like Madge would revert to this type of crap just to hawk a domain registration site. I don’t care if she has to produce material just to satisfy her contract, I seriously feel dumber from watching these things.

When you are ready to generate revenue, you have to look at how its going to fit into your overall brand. When you espouse anti-corporate values and then turn around and take money from someone like GoDaddy.com – you better make sure you make a point out of it.

As online content producers, we sit in a very privileged position. We don’t have editors, we don’t have censors, we can say whatever we want. However, that also comes with a promise to our readers and our listeners that we will at least try to entertain and inform them in exchange for their loyalty.

The solution to this is to decide what revenue-generating format works best for you. Its it a total sponsorship a ‘la Geritol? Is it specialty-placed ads like Google Ad-sense? Is it local sponors reflecting the local audience? Either way make it work WITH your content, not against it.

This is a brave new world, folks. As those of us who are in the lower tier of this medium start to climb slowly upwards, we have to face the challenges that every business must do. If we want to make this last, we have to do it right.